Other issues also cloud the future:
I don’t know if the next “gen” has a name yet, but early returns indicate that this post-millenial group is more conservative than the millenials are, much the way the early- and mid- boomers were the ones protesting on campuses in the 60’s, while the late-boomers got MBAs and voted for Reagan.
At any rate, both points lead to your conclusion where a larger % of Dems trend leftwards in the future.
Generation Z is the group after the Millennials. It’s actually a mixed bag when it comes to their politics compared to previous generations, though it should be noted that Bernie Sanders performed better against the entire field of 2016 candidates among high school students than anyone, with Trump coming in second.
I think what we can expect most of all from Generation Z is a higher proportion of independent voters, and that squares with them choosing Sanders or Trump over establishment politicians. It should also come as no surprise that Generation Z is more concerned with global warming than any previous generation, seeing as how they’re actually going to be around to experience whatever catastrophes it visits on humanity.
I work with numbers all the time such as these, and my conclusions indicate that although what you say is true, but the statistical differences are not as significant as most on the left think they are. For example, in the last GSS survey, IIRC, 14% of Republicans believed that interracial marriage should be outlawed. That sounds like a great anti-GOP talking point, but it’s never used, because 10% of Democrats polled believe the same thing. Almost all the questions that could be interpreted to show racism have the same sort of result: The GOP is more racist than the Dems, but the difference between the parties is so small that you can’t make a talking point out of it.
Margins in politics can be razor thin. 14% vs. 10% is a significant difference.
At any rate, let’s leave the bigoted/racist matter aside for a moment and focus on education.
Only 33% of America has a college degree, and that stat is likely to remain static or even diminish in the future, and “educated jobs” gain a reputation for being “outsourceable”, while plumber and electrician jobs cannot be disposed of so easily. The left keeps harping on this “education” gap; I say be careful to not break your arm as you pat yourself on the back. It takes a special sort of insanity to think you can win an election by playing up to the educated and ignoring the working class. You cannot win an election with 33% of the vote.
You can be a plumber who believes in science as a valid method of acquiring knowledge, or you can be a plumber who does not. When it comes to how the parties break down on issues of empiricism, the Republicans are less likely to respect science as a valid means of acquiring knowledge than Democrats, and Republicans are less likely to trust scientists’ published findings. It’s particularly stark in the realm of climate change. This is unsurprising, given the volume of propaganda foisted on Republicans by the the likes of the Koch Brothers.
Well, that’s about 95% of all politicians, so……. :-)
It’s certainly most politicians, but it isn’t as bad as 95% (yet).
Damn, that’s a good point. I am embarrassed I never thought about it. And means the Party is even more FUBARed than I previously considered. And those safe blue-district Democrats sit far more comfortably if they do NOT rock that boat than if they do.
Probably so. It remains to be seen whether these politicians can be primaried from the left. The 2018 election will be very telling on that front, because there are a lot of people gearing up to challenge neoliberal, establishment Democrats.
You’re a lib, I’m a con, but both of us are stuck in the same maze, and it seems like the only way out is to get by the Minotaur. Not good.
I’m a radical, not a liberal. We’re only stuck in the maze because we accept the maze as an immutable reality, but it isn’t.