I’ve done a statistical analysis of Nader voters based on the 2000 exit poll. That poll included a question about whom if anyone the voter would have supported without Nader on the ballot. I (logistically) regressed those answers against demographic information so that I could infer statewide results (with error bars to account for uncertainty). That’s why I can say that in NH, Nader probably helped Gore; and in Florida, a proportionally larger sample allows me to say with certainty that Nader helped Bush by over 500 votes statewide.
Congratulations for coming onto Medium and saying you did a statistical analysis of exit polls. I don’t suppose you have any actual data to share, do you? Maybe a link to where you published your results? I can’t just trust a guy that says “I analyzed exit polls and concluded X” with zero evidence, no discussion of methodology, and no data. I’m already skeptical of your results just based on what you said, but I can’t really know if you did a good job or not until I see what you did.
So go ahead, call me bogus again, and then throw up another smokescreen with other causes. When something comes that close, there are plenty of things besides Nader you can correctly point your finger at. But that doesn’t mean I’m wrong for pointing mine at him.
I can’t call you bogus on this one because you haven’t supplied anything concrete that I can judge to be right or wrong. Even if you do have the data, by the way, and can verify your claims that Gore would have won if Nader hadn’t been in the election, your conclusion that it’s correct to point your finger at Nader is still wrong. It is not Nader’s fault that Gore wasn’t a better candidate. It’s not any Nader voter’s fault for voting for him. It’s Gore’s fault for not winning their votes. The Democratic Party has only itself to blame.
(By the way, I voted for him, though it was in a safe state. So it’s not that I’m biased against him. I’m just stating facts.)
You’re not stating facts. You’re just stating stuff that you claim is facts without giving any way for us to verify them. Science demands that a claim be falsifiable. I cannot falsify your claims, as you have provided nothing for us to look at, therefore they are unscientific claims.